Robin Hanson: Prediction Markets Can Fix Bad Decisions | Prediction Market Movers

About this episode

On this episode of Prediction Market Movers, Chris Gerlacher sits down with Dr. Robin Hanson to explore where prediction markets came from, where they're headed, and how they could become a much more powerful tool for decision-making. Hanson revisits the early DARPA Policy Analysis Market controversy, explains the evolution of combinatorial prediction markets, and discusses why he believes organizations should eventually pay directly for the information prediction markets produce. The conversation shifts into prediction market accuracy, political market volatility, probability, market manipulation, and the backlash facing platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. Hanson explains how traders…