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80,000 Hours Podcast

80,000 Hours Podcast

#247 – Anton Leicht on how middle powers avoid losing everything in a post-AI world

Jul 14, 2026 · 1h 34m

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In a post-AGI world, can a country without access to frontier AI even be considered sovereign anymore? Anton Leicht says once frontier AI becomes a core economic input, the countries that own it will pull further and further ahead. Everyone else stays a customer… or worse. Maybe the dominant power wants your land, or a military base, or a resource. Without economic leverage, there’s very little you could do about it. Anton — Carnegie fellow and writer of the blog Threading the Needle — thinks middle powers should band together and build their own frontier models. He’s costed it out : something like $500 billion over four years for a band of allied democracies. That’s not absurd money for…