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687. Are Prediction Markets the Best Forecasting Tool Ever — or Just Another Casino?
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The promise is that they can beat the experts at predicting inflation, elections, and FDA approvals. But right now, roughly 90 percent of the action is sports. Is this a future we want to bet on? Stephen Dubner speaks with, among others, the C.E.O. of Kalshi. (Part one of a two-part series.)