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Can We Predict History Like the Weather? | Peter Turchin on Cliodynamics
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Why do civilizations rise, prosper, and then collapse? Here's what the math tells us. In this episode, we sit down with Peter Turchin, complexity scientist and founder of the field of cliodynamics, which uses data and mathematical models to study the long-term cycles of history. Turchin explains his theory of elite overproduction, how societies generate too many ambitious, educated elites competing for too few positions, and why this dynamic reliably leads to polarization, inequality, and political turmoil. We explore how his structural-demographic theory maps the recurring “boom and bust” rhythms that have shaped civilizations from ancient Rome to modern America, the role of military…