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The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

Firepower Is Not a Strategy

Mar 19, 2026 · 25m

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On this episode

About this episode

Solo analysis from Jacob! Some reflection on being wrong about the Third Gulf War. Jacob outlines why he thought the war wouldn't happen - interceptor shortages, domestic politics, inflation risk, and explains what's shaken his analytical framework: the killing of moderate Iranian leaders, the appointment of a hardline Supreme Leader, the U.S. confusing firepower for strategy, and, of course, allies refusing to cooperate. -- Timestamps: (00:27) - Why No US Attack (02:15) - Iran Geography Leverage (02:56) - US Politics Inflation Risk (05:19) - Noninterventionist Contradiction (06:26) - War Starts Timebox Logic (07:50) - Leadership Decapitation Fallout (08:43) - Hardliners Take Over (10:02) -…